UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Smith vs Chiesa

1,629

CageRank

WINNER
Chiesa

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
87% chance Chiesa
WILL WIN

1,954

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Michael Chiesa
Much better submission offense 8.8 vs 7.2 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.2 vs 7.5 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger jaw 8.6 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 8.5 vs 7.8 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly longer reach 192 cm vs 180 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better takedown defense 8.5 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 8.0 vs 7.9 Almost the same
Taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Slightly stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Colton Smith
Significantly heavier hands 6.7 vs 6.2 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer winning streak 5 fights vs 3 fights More than 65% longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Chiesa on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Smith’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
Chiesa
In 7:40, how much damage will he do? Chiesa Smith
Significant Strikes26
Chiesa's average striking offense is matched by Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 69 Significant Strikes in 7:40
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Chiesa's good takedown offense may be a factor against Smith's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:40
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Chiesa is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Chiesa has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Chiesa is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Smith on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Chiesa’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Colton
Smith
In 7:40, how much damage will he do? Smith Chiesa
Significant Strikes24
Smith's average striking offense is matched by Chiesa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 69 Significant Strikes in 7:40
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Smith's good takedown offense may be a factor against Chiesa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:40
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Smith is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Smith is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Smith is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Chiesa 8.1
fighter Smith 8.1
Great striking by Chiesa
7 strikes Nov 06, 2013 vs Smith
5 strikes Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
9 strikes Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Chiesa 8.9
fighter Smith 8.8
Great takedowns by Chiesa
1 takedown Nov 06, 2013 vs Smith
1 takedown Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
1 takedown Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Chiesa 6.2
fighter Smith 6.7
Great knockouts by Smith
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Coles
Round 1 Jan 15, 2011 vs Wilkins
Round 1 Jan 12, 2008 vs Wine

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Chiesa 8.8
fighter Smith 7.2
Great submissions by Chiesa
Round 2 Nov 06, 2013 vs Smith
Round 2 Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
Round 1 Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Chiesa 8.2
fighter Smith 7.5
Fast finishes by Chiesa
449 seconds Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
167 seconds Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta
133 seconds Jul 16, 2011 vs Coble
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
XR2 SUB
1,6671,868
1,6431,892
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Chiesa
legend Smith
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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