UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lee vs Chiesa

1,856

CageRank

WINNER
Chiesa

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
64% chance Chiesa
WILL WIN

1,954

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Michael Chiesa
Much taller 185 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Better submission offense 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Fast finishes 8.2 vs 7.8 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better takedown defense 8.5 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Slightly stronger jaw 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Advantages for Kevin Lee
Younger 24 years vs 29 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better striker 8.4 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier hands 6.6 vs 6.2 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer winning streak 4 fights vs 3 fights Around 35% longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Better submission defense 8.3 vs 8.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Chiesa on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lee’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
Chiesa
In 10:49, how much damage will he do? Chiesa Lee
Significant Strikes42
Chiesa's average striking offense is matched by Lee's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 97 Significant Strikes in 10:49
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Chiesa's good takedown offense may be a factor against Lee's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:49
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Chiesa is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Chiesa has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Chiesa is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lee on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Chiesa’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kevin
Lee
In 10:49, how much damage will he do? Lee Chiesa
Significant Strikes42
Lee's average striking offense is matched by Chiesa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 97 Significant Strikes in 10:49
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lee's average takedown offense is matched by Chiesa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:49
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lee is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lee has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Lee is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Chiesa 8.9
fighter Lee 8.5
Great takedowns by Chiesa
1 takedown Nov 06, 2013 vs Smith
1 takedown Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
1 takedown Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Chiesa 6.2
fighter Lee 6.6
Great knockouts by Lee
Round 1 Jul 08, 2016 vs Matthews

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Chiesa 8.8
fighter Lee 8.1
Great submissions by Chiesa
Round 2 Nov 06, 2013 vs Smith
Round 2 Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
Round 1 Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Chiesa 8.2
fighter Lee 7.9
Fast finishes by Chiesa
449 seconds Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
167 seconds Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta
133 seconds Jul 16, 2011 vs Coble
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Chiesa
legend Lee
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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