UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lee vs Ferguson

1,856

CageRank

WINNER
Ferguson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
68% chance Ferguson
WILL WIN

1,986

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Tony Ferguson
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 6.6 Around 35% better at knocking out good defenders
Much longer winning streak 9 fights vs 4 fights 2.2x longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
A lot taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 8.6 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Kevin Lee
Significantly better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.2 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly younger 25 years vs 33 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 8.1 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Ferguson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lee’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tony
Ferguson
In 8:31, how much damage will he do? Ferguson Lee
Significant Strikes43
Ferguson's good striking offense may be a factor against Lee's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 77 Significant Strikes in 8:31
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Ferguson's average takedown offense is matched by Lee's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:31
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ferguson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ferguson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Ferguson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lee on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ferguson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kevin
Lee
In 8:31, how much damage will he do? Lee Ferguson
Significant Strikes38
Lee's average striking offense is matched by Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 77 Significant Strikes in 8:31
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Lee's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:31
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lee is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lee has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lee has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Ferguson 8.6
fighter Lee 8.4
Great striking by Ferguson
5 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
61 strikes Dec 03, 2011 vs Edwards
31 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Ferguson 8.8
fighter Lee 6.6
Great knockouts by Ferguson
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
Round 1 Jun 04, 2011 vs Nijem
Round 4 Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Ferguson 7.2
fighter Lee 8.1
Great submissions by Lee
Round 1 Sep 13, 2013 vs Gervais
Round 3 Jul 19, 2013 vs Lile
Round 2 Apr 13, 2013 vs Prepolec

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Ferguson 8.8
fighter Lee 7.9
Fast finishes by Ferguson
112 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
300 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
1055 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Ferguson
legend Lee
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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