UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Aoki

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
78% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 6.4 Around 55% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.5 Around 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.3 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
A lot taller 180 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.7 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 6.1 Around 55% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.6 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Younger 28 years vs 33 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer reach 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 7:52, how much damage will he do? Aoki McGregor
Significant Strikes19
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 71 Significant Strikes in 7:52
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:52
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 7:52, how much damage will he do? McGregor Aoki
Significant Strikes16
McGregor's good striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 71 Significant Strikes in 7:52
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:52
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by McGregor
53 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway
21 strikes Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend McGregor
Read More
McGregor vs Nurmagomedov
Fantasy Cage Match
Aoki vs Jones
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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