UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Rua

2,038

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
McGregor

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
53% chance McGregor
WILL WIN

2,020

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 30 years vs 36 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 8.3 vs 8.1 Almost the same
Stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Mauricio Rua
Much harder to hit 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier 205 lbs vs 155 lbs More than 30% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
A lot taller 185 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Longer reach 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rua’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 9:57, how much damage will he do? McGregor Rua
Significant Strikes31
McGregor's good striking offense won't be a factor against Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 90 Significant Strikes in 9:57
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
McGregor's average takedown offense is matched by Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:57
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rua on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mauricio
Rua
In 9:57, how much damage will he do? Rua McGregor
Significant Strikes64
Rua's excellent striking offense will dominate McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 90 Significant Strikes in 9:57
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Rua's average takedown offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:57
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rua has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rua is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rua is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter McGregor 8.6
fighter Rua 9.3
Great striking by Rua
16 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
17 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Machida
48 strikes Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter McGregor 8.5
fighter Rua 8.3
Great takedowns by McGregor
4 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter McGregor 9.4
fighter Rua 9.3
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter McGregor 6.5
fighter Rua 6.5
Great submissions by Rua
Round 1 Oct 21, 2006 vs Randleman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter McGregor 9.2
fighter Rua 8.8
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend McGregor
legend Rua
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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