UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Chiesa

2,038

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
McGregor

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
62% chance McGregor
WILL WIN

1,954

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 6.2 More than 50% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Michael Chiesa
Much better submission offense 8.8 vs 6.4 More than 35% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much taller 185 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Longer reach 192 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 8.5 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Chiesa’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 7:20, how much damage will he do? McGregor Chiesa
Significant Strikes33
McGregor's good striking offense may be a factor against Chiesa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 66 Significant Strikes in 7:20
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense is matched by Chiesa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:20
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Chiesa on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
Chiesa
In 7:20, how much damage will he do? Chiesa McGregor
Significant Strikes29
Chiesa's average striking offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 66 Significant Strikes in 7:20
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Chiesa's good takedown offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:20
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Chiesa is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Chiesa has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Chiesa is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter McGregor 8.6
fighter Chiesa 8.1
Great striking by McGregor
53 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway
21 strikes Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter McGregor 8.5
fighter Chiesa 8.9
Great takedowns by Chiesa
1 takedown Nov 06, 2013 vs Smith
1 takedown Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
1 takedown Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter McGregor 9.4
fighter Chiesa 6.2
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter McGregor 6.5
fighter Chiesa 8.8
Great submissions by Chiesa
Round 2 Nov 06, 2013 vs Smith
Round 2 Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
Round 1 Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter McGregor 9.2
fighter Chiesa 8.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend McGregor
legend Chiesa
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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