UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Lombard

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Lombard

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
75% chance Lombard
WILL WIN

2,230

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Hector Lombard
Much better submission offense 7.4 vs 6.4 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 10.0 vs 8.9 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission defense 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly stronger jaw 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 184 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better takedown defense 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Taller 175 cm vs 173 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Significantly younger 29 years vs 39 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer reach 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Heavier hands 9.4 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Lombard on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Hector
Lombard
In 7:47, how much damage will he do? Lombard McGregor
Significant Strikes44
Lombard's good striking offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 70 Significant Strikes in 7:47
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lombard's average takedown offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:47
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lombard has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lombard is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lombard is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lombard’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 7:47, how much damage will he do? McGregor Lombard
Significant Strikes38
McGregor's good striking offense may be a factor against Lombard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 70 Significant Strikes in 7:47
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense is matched by Lombard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:47
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Lombard 8.9
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by Lombard
10 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Marquardt
24 strikes Dec 15, 2012 vs Palhares

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Lombard 8.3
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by McGregor
4 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Lombard 9.3
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Lombard 7.4
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Lombard
Round 2 Sep 03, 2011 vs Taylor
Round 1 Nov 20, 2009 vs Starnes
Round 4 Sep 12, 2008 vs Ebersole

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Lombard 9.4
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by Lombard
108 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs Marquardt
218 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Palhares
386 seconds Sep 03, 2011 vs Taylor
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Lombard
legend McGregor
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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