UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Johnson

2,038

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
McGregor

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
52% chance McGregor
WILL WIN

2,023

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.0 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 8.3 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.8 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly younger 30 years vs 32 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Michael Johnson
Significantly better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 178 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Harder to hit 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Better submission offense 6.6 vs 6.4 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 10:25, how much damage will he do? McGregor Johnson
Significant Strikes50
McGregor's good striking offense may be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 94 Significant Strikes in 10:25
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:25
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
Johnson
In 10:25, how much damage will he do? Johnson McGregor
Significant Strikes52
Johnson's average striking offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 94 Significant Strikes in 10:25
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Johnson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:25
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter McGregor 8.6
fighter Johnson 8.6
Great striking by McGregor
53 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway
21 strikes Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter McGregor 8.5
fighter Johnson 7.8
Great takedowns by McGregor
4 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter McGregor 9.4
fighter Johnson 8.3
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter McGregor 6.5
fighter Johnson 6.6
Great submissions by Johnson
Round 3 Jun 14, 2010 vs Wilkinson
Round 1 Apr 10, 2009 vs French
Round 1 Apr 18, 2008 vs Schneider

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter McGregor 9.2
fighter Johnson 8.0
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend McGregor
legend Johnson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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