UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Johnson

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Johnson

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
72% chance Johnson
WILL WIN

2,200

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demetrious Johnson
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.4 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better takedown defense 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.2 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 7.7 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly longer reach 185 cm vs 168 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 173 cm vs 160 cm Around 10% taller
Heavier 155 lbs vs 125 lbs Around 25% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly younger 29 years vs 31 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demetrious
Johnson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Johnson McGregor
Significant Strikes81
Johnson's good striking offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Johnson's excellent takedown offense will dominate McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? McGregor Johnson
Significant Strikes54
McGregor's good striking offense is matched by Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
McGregor's average takedown offense is matched by Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Johnson 8.7
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by Johnson
7 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Benavidez
77 strikes Sep 22, 2012 vs Benavidez
13 strikes May 28, 2011 vs Torres

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Johnson 9.2
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by Johnson
12 takedowns Jul 27, 2013 vs Moraga
5 takedowns Sep 22, 2012 vs Benavidez
5 takedowns May 28, 2011 vs Torres

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Johnson 7.2
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Johnson 7.9
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Johnson
Round 5 Jul 27, 2013 vs Moraga
Round 3 Nov 11, 2010 vs Page
Round 2 Aug 16, 2008 vs Garza

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Johnson 7.7
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Johnson
legend McGregor
Read More
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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