UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Nelson

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Nelson

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
53% chance Nelson
WILL WIN

2,061

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gunnar Nelson
Much better submission offense 9.4 vs 6.4 More than 45% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Taller 180 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 169 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.1 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Slightly longer reach 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gunnar
Nelson
In 9:27, how much damage will he do? Nelson McGregor
Significant Strikes45
Nelson's average striking offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 85 Significant Strikes in 9:27
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Nelson's average takedown offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:27
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 9:27, how much damage will he do? McGregor Nelson
Significant Strikes44
McGregor's good striking offense may be a factor against Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 85 Significant Strikes in 9:27
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
McGregor's average takedown offense is matched by Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:27
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nelson 8.5
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by McGregor
53 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway
21 strikes Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nelson 8.7
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by Nelson
2 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs Santiago
1 takedown Sep 29, 2012 vs Johnson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nelson 7.1
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nelson 9.4
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Nelson
Round 1 Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
Round 1 Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
Round 1 Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nelson 9.0
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nelson
legend McGregor
Read More
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Fantasy Cage Match
Nelson vs Thompson
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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