UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Stephens

2,038

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
McGregor

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
59% chance McGregor
WILL WIN

1,978

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.0 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 8.2 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 8.0 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Longer reach 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better striker 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Younger 28 years vs 30 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Jeremy Stephens
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 175 cm vs 173 cm Almost the same
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Stephens’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 10:55, how much damage will he do? McGregor Stephens
Significant Strikes43
McGregor's good striking offense is matched by Stephens's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:55
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Stephens's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:55
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Stephens on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jeremy
Stephens
In 10:55, how much damage will he do? Stephens McGregor
Significant Strikes54
Stephens's average striking offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:55
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Stephens's average takedown offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:55
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Stephens has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Stephens is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Stephens is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter McGregor 8.6
fighter Stephens 8.5
Great striking by McGregor
53 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway
21 strikes Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter McGregor 8.5
fighter Stephens 8.0
Great takedowns by McGregor
4 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter McGregor 9.4
fighter Stephens 8.2
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter McGregor 6.5
fighter Stephens 6.5
Great submissions by Stephens
Round 1 Aug 19, 2006 vs Alcorn
Round 2 Feb 06, 2004 vs Bell
Round 3 Jan 16, 2004 vs Erdman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter McGregor 9.2
fighter Stephens 8.0
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend McGregor
legend Stephens
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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