UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Machida

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Machida

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
67% chance Machida
WILL WIN

2,164

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Lyoto Machida
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.5 Around 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.6 vs 8.3 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger jaw 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
A lot taller 185 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission offense 6.8 vs 6.4 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Heavier 184 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better striker 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Slightly longer reach 188 cm vs 185 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly younger 29 years vs 40 years Around 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 8.0 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Machida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Lyoto
Machida
In 12:13, how much damage will he do? Machida McGregor
Significant Strikes66
Machida's good striking offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 110 Significant Strikes in 12:13
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Machida's average takedown offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:13
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Machida has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Machida is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Machida has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Machida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 12:13, how much damage will he do? McGregor Machida
Significant Strikes24
McGregor's good striking offense won't be a factor against Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 110 Significant Strikes in 12:13
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:13
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Machida 8.7
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by Machida
27 strikes Feb 23, 2013 vs Henderson
35 strikes Oct 24, 2009 vs Rua
28 strikes May 23, 2009 vs Evans

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Machida 8.0
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by McGregor
4 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Machida 8.6
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Machida 6.8
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Machida
Round 2 Dec 29, 2007 vs Thierry Sokoudjou
Round 1 Mar 14, 2004 vs McDonald

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Machida 8.2
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Machida
legend McGregor
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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