UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Maia

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Maia

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
59% chance Maia
WILL WIN

2,102

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demian Maia
Much better submission offense 8.1 vs 6.4 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.3 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
A lot taller 183 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.2 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly younger 29 years vs 39 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better striker 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Slightly longer reach 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maia McGregor
Significant Strikes65
Maia's average striking offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns6
Maia's excellent takedown offense will dominate McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? McGregor Maia
Significant Strikes58
McGregor's good striking offense is matched by Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Maia 8.3
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by McGregor
53 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway
21 strikes Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Maia 9.7
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Maia 7.2
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Maia 8.1
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Maia
Round 1 Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
Round 1 Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Round 2 Apr 19, 2008 vs Herman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Maia 8.5
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Maia
legend McGregor
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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