UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Cerrone

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
72% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

2,206

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 6.4 Around 35% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
A lot taller 183 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.9 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 8.0 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Younger 28 years vs 34 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 8:53, how much damage will he do? Cerrone McGregor
Significant Strikes53
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 80 Significant Strikes in 8:53
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cerrone's average takedown offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:53
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 8:53, how much damage will he do? McGregor Cerrone
Significant Strikes47
McGregor's good striking offense may be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 80 Significant Strikes in 8:53
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:53
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by McGregor
4 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend McGregor
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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