UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Ferguson

2,038

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
McGregor

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
57% chance McGregor
WILL WIN

1,986

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Significantly heavier hands 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 8.1 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Younger 28 years vs 33 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Tony Ferguson
Much better submission offense 7.2 vs 6.4 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller 183 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Longer reach 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ferguson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 8:56, how much damage will he do? McGregor Ferguson
Significant Strikes45
McGregor's good striking offense may be a factor against Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 80 Significant Strikes in 8:56
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:56
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Ferguson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tony
Ferguson
In 8:56, how much damage will he do? Ferguson McGregor
Significant Strikes46
Ferguson's good striking offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 80 Significant Strikes in 8:56
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Ferguson's average takedown offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:56
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ferguson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ferguson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ferguson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter McGregor 8.6
fighter Ferguson 8.6
Great striking by McGregor
53 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway
21 strikes Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter McGregor 8.5
fighter Ferguson 8.1
Great takedowns by McGregor
4 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter McGregor 9.4
fighter Ferguson 8.8
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter McGregor 6.5
fighter Ferguson 7.2
Great submissions by Ferguson
Round 1 Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
Round 1 Jan 04, 2009 vs Park
Round 2 Sep 13, 2008 vs Schilling

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter McGregor 9.2
fighter Ferguson 8.8
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend McGregor
legend Ferguson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 1 comment.
Conor beware of this guy and Nurmagomedov
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