UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Mousasi

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Mousasi

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
66% chance Mousasi
WILL WIN

2,154

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gegard Mousasi
Much better submission offense 8.4 vs 6.4 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 9.9 vs 8.5 More than 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 8.9 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
A lot taller 185 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 196 cm vs 185 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 186 lbs vs 155 lbs 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better takedown defense 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.8 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 28 years vs 31 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Mousasi on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gegard
Mousasi
In 10:08, how much damage will he do? Mousasi McGregor
Significant Strikes60
Mousasi's excellent striking offense will dominate McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:08
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Mousasi's average takedown offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:08
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mousasi is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mousasi has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mousasi is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mousasi’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 10:08, how much damage will he do? McGregor Mousasi
Significant Strikes21
McGregor's good striking offense won't be a factor against Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:08
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
McGregor's average takedown offense is matched by Mousasi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:08
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mousasi 9.0
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by Mousasi
23 strikes Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
12 strikes Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
6 strikes Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mousasi 8.6
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by Mousasi
4 takedowns Dec 17, 2011 vs St. Preux
1 takedown Aug 15, 2009 vs Sobral
1 takedown Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mousasi 7.8
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mousasi 8.4
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Mousasi
Round 1 Jan 12, 2013 vs Kyle
Round 1 Sep 23, 2008 vs Manhoef
Round 1 Apr 29, 2008 vs Kang

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mousasi 8.8
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mousasi
legend McGregor
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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