UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Diaz

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
66% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.4 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.6 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 8.9 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
A lot taller 185 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 169 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Longer reach 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Much stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.6 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 28 years vs 33 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 10:40, how much damage will he do? Diaz McGregor
Significant Strikes77
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:40
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:40
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 10:40, how much damage will he do? McGregor Diaz
Significant Strikes57
McGregor's good striking offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:40
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:40
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by McGregor
4 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend McGregor
Read More
McGregor vs Nurmagomedov
Fantasy Cage Match
Diaz vs Diaz
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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