UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Nurmagomedov

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Nurmagomedov

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
71% chance Nurmagomedov
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Much better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.4 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 178 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.7 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Longer reach 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov McGregor
Significant Strikes78
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? McGregor Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes62
McGregor's good striking offense is matched by Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by Nurmagomedov
54 strikes Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
22 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
25 strikes Jul 07, 2012 vs Tibau

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by Nurmagomedov
5 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
21 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Trujillo
3 takedowns Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Nurmagomedov
Round 3 Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus
Round 1 Aug 05, 2011 vs Mamedov
Round 1 Nov 03, 2009 vs Shamkhalaev

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nurmagomedov
legend McGregor
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 25 comments.
Conor is a fine strkier, but MMA is not only a striking sport. I bet he will be submited by any fine grappler who will be able to make a takedown. Obviously Khabib will submit him.
Excuse me, are you talking about Conor McGregor when you say 'weak pathetic fool'? Are you exaggerating because you don't like him or is this statement consistent with reality?
Mcgregor taps and gets choked. Wait!!! That already happened... embarrassingly...with Nate Diaz and then chickens out to do 3rd fight with him. It's just sn inflated guy facing mostly sandbags (McGregor has good timing and style but that won't be enough). Tony is really bad ass and Nurmagomedov is a beast. Let McGregor enjoy his free year of publicity and Media flashing so that he cn artificially pump up PPV and prize. UFC is just a business. Never forget that. I hope he keeps advancing but time and reality will correct things harshly on him.
Since you all are fighting like little bitches let me speak some statistics! Khabib has fought 24 times professionally and has won all 24 of them!! And thats not the crazy part! For all those who argue that hez all wrestling and no striking, I jus wanna say hez won 8 by submission, 8 by unianimous decision and yeah! 8 by knockouts!!! It doesnt get more well rounded than that!!!
He didn't knock him out momo. He knocked him down. Get Conor's dick out of your mouth
and what happened there, stupid retard
i hate when ppl say that way a lucky punch lol..aldo swung a big hesitant right fake hook to set up for that big left that caught conor and busted him but in the process of all that connor steped back and ko'd aldo before that left ever had a chance of having power...its what happens to ever person he fights..cept aldo was running = knock out
yea mendes took that fight on short notice...but you realize so did conor right? he was saposed to fight aldo..way differnt stlyes between the two.
Been watching UFC since 1994 and involved with MMA for 30+ years. McGregor is the real deal. You say Aldo was a lunch punch. Then why didn't anyone else do it before during Aldo's reign? That was timing and technique.McGregor didn't just get a lucky punch, he KO'd Aldo bad. Regardless who he's had a fight with he wins. Sure he lost one and as always learned from it and came back and won. See Conor always looks at each fight and learns from it. He takes that knowledge and adds it to his arsenal and adapts his fighting style to use the knowledge he's gained. No other fighter except Gracie has truly done this in the UFC. Excuses is all I'm hearing and the maximum effective range of an excuse is zero meters. A win is a win. Who else in UFC history has done what McGregor has? No one. He said from day one what he was going to do and did it. Stop being a D!ckhead and give credit where credit is due. You don't have to like a fighter but you have to respect them.
You all are high! KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV has zero striking defense and -zero against a southpaw. Khabib needs to close to be effective and that where McGregor is comfortable. Khabib would get the kiss of death being Conor's left hand quickly and be KO'd early half round one. Khabib is just a grappler with extremely limited striking. Yes Khabib has the best takedown at 155 but Conor now has one of the best takedown defenses in UFC. No question McGregor for the KO early round 1.
Khabib has only fought like 3 people with a decent name. MJ, RDA and Thiago Tavares. The rest were bums. If Khabib is so tough on the ground do a catchweight fight with Demian Maia at 170.
He never faced such a great grappler like Khabib. Khabib will definitely win by submission.
well to be fair diaz is proven to be the tougher match for mcgregor, its hard to give a rematch to a 13 second knockout...
being a two belt champ I think he's far from weak...
If Khabib stands with Conor for more than a minute the fight is over. He has proven to have a weak chin against Johnson and MJ throws wild punches with reckless abandon. Conor throws precise bombs that put you down and out. With the exception of Diaz of course. If Khabib wants to win he needs to weather a true Conor left, shoot for the takedown, and do his ground and pound. But weathering a Conor left is no easy task. Let's see how he fares against Ferguson first who has a significant reach advantage. Should be interesting.
IMHO: McGregor is a weak pathetic fool, he will tap out immediately when Khabib will throw him on the canvas.
after a loss why was a rematch given against nate .... why not a rematch against aldo ... how did he become #1 contender after beating nate who is at #5 ... funny the way dana fixes match
mc gregor is yet to defend his title against #1 contenders .... thts when the fun will start
Dana white is gonna ride the golden goose as long as he can, fighter ratings don't mean shit. Connor run a pretty sheltered life in the ufc, like Nate said he's only good at beaten up midgets.
Everybody always says Conor is gonna lose, they call those who says he won't fanboys, when in reality they're just haters who're gonna say the same thing about the next guy again if Conor beats Khabib.
Khabib would be my bet
After last night this needs updated. Khabib's chin is a little more questionable after an early rocking. Conor's striking accuracy and KO power need increased as well as his takedown defense. Prediction, Conor KOs the Russian in less than two rounds. Precision striking and power against a sloppy striker with a now questionable chin.
This might be Conor's toughest fight yet, but his speed, timing, and precision should beat Khabib's sloppy style.
Khabib>Conor
Just like he was going to knock out the #5 lightweight right.
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