UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Nurmagomedov

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Nurmagomedov

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
71% chance Nurmagomedov
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Much better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.4 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 178 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.7 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Longer reach 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov McGregor
Significant Strikes78
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? McGregor Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes62
McGregor's good striking offense is matched by Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by Nurmagomedov
54 strikes Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
22 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
25 strikes Jul 07, 2012 vs Tibau

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by Nurmagomedov
5 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
21 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Trujillo
3 takedowns Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Nurmagomedov
Round 3 Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus
Round 1 Aug 05, 2011 vs Mamedov
Round 1 Nov 03, 2009 vs Shamhalaev

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nurmagomedov
legend McGregor
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 25 comments.
This is such a biased breakdown. Whoever put it together needs to pull their tongue out of Khabib's arse.
Lol, of all the ways this could go a decision is not it.
Cage Rank got it wrong, McGregor v Mendes, wrong v Aldo, wrong v Alvarez and now they've got it wrong again.
Tried to beat bus and lost.
Mcgregor = 21W/3L.... 18 ko, 1 submission, 2 decisions, 3 losses(submission- 2 early in his career and 1 lucky nate diaz submission) 90% finish ratio Khabib = 26W/0L...8 ko, 8 submission, 10 DECISIONS - 62% finish ratio he also only has 9 fights with UFC caliber and 5 of those went to the judges. Connor can push just like Khabib but Connor finishes fights, period. I say Connor is looking pretty good, especially if he ups his take down defense just one notch.
so who does this page believe will win?
After watching Iaquinta fight, it seems that the only possible way for Khabib to win is to take him down immediately and choke him - no waiting around. He cannot waste a single second or give Conor the chance to get the feel of him. His bear simply has to rise up. He has the conviction to do it, but will he? Conor will look to ko him and finish him off inside the first 30 secs EVERYTHING will be decided within first 30 secs.
It’s impossible to say who will win with even faintest certainty, which is what makes it so exciting. Khabib can manage to secure a takedown early in the round and mill Conor’s stamina like he did with every previous opponent, and Conor is very dangerous with his explosive striking power in first 2 rounds and odd attack style, so there’s a big chance he will rock Khabib or even KO him early - as biased Joe Rogan was there’s vulnerability in Khabib’s chin being high most of the time for the followup strike rushes Conor loves. One thing I’m certain of: Conor will start with a big advantage and chance to win, but with each round Khabib will become more and more dominating - I’ve never seen him as gassed in 3rd as Conor always is. So either early KO/TKO by Conor or decision in favor of Khabib (oh boy, what a shitstorm on social media that would be), provided Khabib secures point advantage in 3rd round. Even Khabib himself is realistic and admits he doesn’t have the power to KO finish his opponents, but he knows how to drain stamina and score points like no one else in any division.
Khabib is calling out an aging GSP Let's see if Khabib has the balls to get wrecked by Woodley
Khabib had his hands full with RDA and Mcgregor lost to Diaz at 170 At 170 Diaz would wreck Khabib
What legitimate oppenents ? He got wrecked by Nate Diaz.. Khabib mauled Barboza, RDA, MJ, you really think Nate Diaz can do something against Khabib ? I know maths don't work, but let's be serious, Khabib has a good defense from strikers, and have a good resistance, if it goes too far, he will just take Conor down and humiliate him
legitimate opponents 40 year olds
fighting nobodies. Conor has knocked out more legitimate opponents than Khabib has beaten them.
sloppy striker record says 24-0
conor would win by tko in 2nd round
He literally has the highest striking defense in lightweight.
I think 155 is probably Conor's natural weight... I worry about him against khabib as a fan, but wouldn't be surprised if he won with ease. look at alvarez.. conor learned a lot from diaz 1, its made him a better fighter.
One of the best takedown defense in the UFC... wtf are you talking about???
When are you fighting "Nate"?
Did they announced when you are going to fight
Conor is a fine strkier, but MMA is not only a striking sport. I bet he will be submited by any fine grappler who will be able to make a takedown. Obviously Khabib will submit him.
Excuse me, are you talking about Conor McGregor when you say 'weak pathetic fool'? Are you exaggerating because you don't like him or is this statement consistent with reality?
Mcgregor taps and gets choked. Wait!!! That already happened... embarrassingly...with Nate Diaz and then chickens out to do 3rd fight with him. It's just sn inflated guy facing mostly sandbags (McGregor has good timing and style but that won't be enough). Tony is really bad ass and Nurmagomedov is a beast. Let McGregor enjoy his free year of publicity and Media flashing so that he cn artificially pump up PPV and prize. UFC is just a business. Never forget that. I hope he keeps advancing but time and reality will correct things harshly on him.
Since you all are fighting like little bitches let me speak some statistics! Khabib has fought 24 times professionally and has won all 24 of them!! And thats not the crazy part! For all those who argue that hez all wrestling and no striking, I jus wanna say hez won 8 by submission, 8 by unianimous decision and yeah! 8 by knockouts!!! It doesnt get more well rounded than that!!!
He didn't knock him out momo. He knocked him down. Get Conor's dick out of your mouth
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