UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McGregor vs Nurmagomedov

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Nurmagomedov

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
71% chance Nurmagomedov
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Much better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.4 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 178 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.7 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Longer reach 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov McGregor
Significant Strikes78
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? McGregor Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes62
McGregor's good striking offense is matched by Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by Nurmagomedov
54 strikes Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
22 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
25 strikes Jul 07, 2012 vs Tibau

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by Nurmagomedov
5 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
21 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Trujillo
3 takedowns Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Nurmagomedov
Round 3 Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus
Round 1 Aug 05, 2011 vs Mamedov
Round 1 Nov 03, 2009 vs Shamhalaev

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 6, 2018UFC 229
team
VS
team
XR4 SUB
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nurmagomedov
legend McGregor
Read More
McGregor vs Cerrone
Fantasy Cage Match
Nurmagomedov vs St. Pierre
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 25 comments.
What happened? You were so sure, take those rose colored glasses off you are blinded by idol worshipping a false Irish idol.
Khabib destroyer Conor on October 6,2018 what was what you said?
It wasn’t just a win, he raped McGregor right into the #metoo movement
You are right
He won
lol, it's funny how some people thought connor can at least hurt khabib, and how some people (like me) were absolutely sure that khabib will literally humiliate connor, and every second of the fight happened exactly like I thought it will. nothing was a suprise.
Oh I was wrong. Khabib won no excuses. I can admit that. The post fight shenanigans shouldn't have happened, but they did.
well this aged well didnt it
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Dude you're an idiot, Khabib beat Barboza it wasn't a fight when he was in his prime this was an aging Barboza. Also Diaz would destroy that boy. Khabib has never faced an opponent like Conor. You can train for Khabib, but you can't train for Conor because he's so random and he uses so many weird angles. And Khabibs faced no one with the takedown defense and striking accuracy and power that Conor has. Who else has done what Conor has done by going up weight classes to fight another opponent and win sure he lost one nobody's invincible in MMA, but he learns from his mistakes and he comes back stronger every time and that is a key attribute about Conor that can't be taken lightly. Let's face it Conor won both those fights against Diaz. Yes Diaz called him and submitted him but up until that point it was an all Conor show. I predict Conor is going to starch him within two rounds. Khabib's chin is questionable and he ain't been hit with anything like like the bombs Conor throws.
Go listen to Joe Rogan's podcast when they talk about this fight on YouTube. You can train for Khabib but you can't train for Conor because he's so random and he uses so many different angles and it's strikings on another level in that way division. I'm not going to go into detail go watch Joe's podcast and they talk about it in-depth and you'll see.
Connor is out of shape. Puffy under the eyes. High level of toxicity in his system. late nights bad food for months. you cant just shake that off. Its a case of being ruined by a 100 Million dollars. Khabb is hurgry. tremendous rad work and he is prepared for a south paw. Connor will lose. he will run out of gas early. Nothing to do with technique . Conditioning is the problem. The lungs have been compromised to many months from a nightlife living style. Very puffy and has ages a lot since the last fight look at his face.
Aldo and Alvarez ring a bell as far as legit opponents? Aldo was on a decade long undefeated streak when Conor knocked him the f**k out. Diaz lost the second fight to Conor and the first fight he got the submission cause Conor was gassed and took a desperation take down shot. He knocked Diaz down three times their second fight and you think diaz wrecked him? GTFO with that logic.
TO: ChillBill::::::Idk man 18KOs by McGregor and only 8KOs for Khabib it doesnt really line up with a "lucky punch" philosophy for how McGregor wins. Also McGregor went 10-11rds with arguably one of the best boxers in the world so i wouldnt say he hasnt seen "a true challenge." I would say fighting out of your preferred style in the boxing ring with one of the best is a "True challenge"
This is such a biased breakdown. Whoever put it together needs to pull their tongue out of Khabib's arse.
Lol, of all the ways this could go a decision is not it.
Cage Rank got it wrong, McGregor v Mendes, wrong v Aldo, wrong v Alvarez and now they've got it wrong again.
Tried to beat bus and lost.
Mcgregor = 21W/3L.... 18 ko, 1 submission, 2 decisions, 3 losses(submission- 2 early in his career and 1 lucky nate diaz submission) 90% finish ratio Khabib = 26W/0L...8 ko, 8 submission, 10 DECISIONS - 62% finish ratio he also only has 9 fights with UFC caliber and 5 of those went to the judges. Connor can push just like Khabib but Connor finishes fights, period. I say Connor is looking pretty good, especially if he ups his take down defense just one notch.
so who does this page believe will win?
After watching Iaquinta fight, it seems that the only possible way for Khabib to win is to take him down immediately and choke him - no waiting around. He cannot waste a single second or give Conor the chance to get the feel of him. His bear simply has to rise up. He has the conviction to do it, but will he? Conor will look to ko him and finish him off inside the first 30 secs EVERYTHING will be decided within first 30 secs.
It’s impossible to say who will win with even faintest certainty, which is what makes it so exciting. Khabib can manage to secure a takedown early in the round and mill Conor’s stamina like he did with every previous opponent, and Conor is very dangerous with his explosive striking power in first 2 rounds and odd attack style, so there’s a big chance he will rock Khabib or even KO him early - as biased Joe Rogan was there’s vulnerability in Khabib’s chin being high most of the time for the followup strike rushes Conor loves. One thing I’m certain of: Conor will start with a big advantage and chance to win, but with each round Khabib will become more and more dominating - I’ve never seen him as gassed in 3rd as Conor always is. So either early KO/TKO by Conor or decision in favor of Khabib (oh boy, what a shitstorm on social media that would be), provided Khabib secures point advantage in 3rd round. Even Khabib himself is realistic and admits he doesn’t have the power to KO finish his opponents, but he knows how to drain stamina and score points like no one else in any division.
Khabib is calling out an aging GSP Let's see if Khabib has the balls to get wrecked by Woodley
Khabib had his hands full with RDA and Mcgregor lost to Diaz at 170 At 170 Diaz would wreck Khabib
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