UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Smolka vs Elliott

1,821

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Smolka

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
57% chance Smolka
WILL WIN

1,773

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Louis Smolka
Significantly better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.3 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 25 years vs 30 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 8.4 vs 8.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 175 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Fast finishes 7.8 vs 7.7 Almost the same
Heavier hands 7.3 vs 7.2 Almost the same
Advantages for Timothy Elliott
Significantly better takedown defense 8.4 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Smolka on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Elliott’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Louis
Smolka
In 11:40, how much damage will he do? Smolka Elliott
Significant Strikes57
Smolka's average striking offense is matched by Elliott's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 105 Significant Strikes in 11:40
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Smolka's average takedown offense is matched by Elliott's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:40
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Smolka is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Smolka has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Smolka is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Elliott on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Smolka’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Timothy
Elliott
In 11:40, how much damage will he do? Elliott Smolka
Significant Strikes61
Elliott's good striking offense may be a factor against Smolka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 105 Significant Strikes in 11:40
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Elliott's good takedown offense may be a factor against Smolka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:40
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Elliott is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Elliott is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Elliott is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Smolka 8.5
fighter Elliott 8.6
Great striking by Elliott
116 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Gaudinot
36 strikes Dec 15, 2012 vs Papazian

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Smolka 8.3
fighter Elliott 8.8
Great takedowns by Elliott
6 takedowns Aug 31, 2013 vs Gaudinot
7 takedowns Dec 15, 2012 vs Papazian

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Smolka 7.3
fighter Elliott 7.2
Great knockouts by Smolka
Round 2 Nov 09, 2013 vs Cali
Round 2 Apr 28, 2012 vs Pacarro
Round 2 May 15, 2010 vs Henamendez

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Smolka 7.9
fighter Elliott 7.3
Great submissions by Smolka
Round 1 Sep 14, 2013 vs Rafols
Round 3 Feb 16, 2013 vs Cacdac
Round 2 Oct 20, 2012 vs Martin

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Smolka 7.9
fighter Elliott 7.7
Fast finishes by Smolka
412 seconds Nov 09, 2013 vs Cali
119 seconds Sep 14, 2013 vs Rafols
839 seconds Feb 16, 2013 vs Cacdac
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Smolka
legend Elliott
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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