UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Smolka vs Pettis

1,821

CageRank

WINNER
Pettis

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
65% chance Pettis
WILL WIN

1,925

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Sergio Pettis
Much longer winning streak 9 fights vs 4 fights 2.2x longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Puts up a fight 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 24 years vs 26 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Louis Smolka
A lot taller 175 cm vs 168 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.3 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Slightly better submission defense 8.4 vs 8.2 Almost the same
Pettis on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Smolka’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Sergio
Pettis
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Pettis Smolka
Significant Strikes76
Pettis's average striking offense is matched by Smolka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Pettis's average takedown offense may be a factor against Smolka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Pettis is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Pettis is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Pettis has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Smolka on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Pettis’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Louis
Smolka
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Smolka Pettis
Significant Strikes73
Smolka's average striking offense is matched by Pettis's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Smolka's average takedown offense may be a factor against Pettis's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Smolka is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Smolka has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Smolka is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Pettis 8.6
fighter Smolka 8.5
Great striking by Pettis
81 strikes Nov 16, 2013 vs Campuzano

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Pettis 8.4
fighter Smolka 8.3
Great takedowns by Pettis
2 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Campuzano

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Pettis 7.3
fighter Smolka 7.3
Great knockouts by Smolka
Round 2 Nov 09, 2013 vs Cali
Round 2 Apr 28, 2012 vs Pacarro
Round 2 May 15, 2010 vs Henamendez

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Pettis 7.3
fighter Smolka 7.9
Great submissions by Smolka
Round 1 Sep 14, 2013 vs Rafols
Round 3 Feb 16, 2013 vs Cacdac
Round 2 Oct 20, 2012 vs Martin

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Pettis 7.9
fighter Smolka 7.9
Fast finishes by Pettis
153 seconds Sep 28, 2013 vs Porter
51 seconds Jun 21, 2013 vs Pegg
232 seconds Jun 16, 2012 vs McKenna
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Pettis
legend Smolka
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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