UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gastelum vs Johnson

1,949

CageRank

WINNER
Johnson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
61% chance Johnson
WILL WIN

2,023

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Michael Johnson
Significantly heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.6 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 187 cm vs 182 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Harder to hit 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Better striker 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Much stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 7.8 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 7.5 vs 6.6 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Heavier 184 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 26 years vs 31 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
Johnson
In 11:27, how much damage will he do? Johnson Gastelum
Significant Strikes57
Johnson's average striking offense is matched by Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:27
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Johnson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:27
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
In 11:27, how much damage will he do? Gastelum Johnson
Significant Strikes50
Gastelum's average striking offense is matched by Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:27
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Gastelum's good takedown offense is matched by Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:27
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Johnson 8.6
fighter Gastelum 8.5
Great striking by Johnson
22 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Tibau
116 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Lauzon
17 strikes Oct 05, 2012 vs Castillo

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Johnson 7.8
fighter Gastelum 8.9
Great takedowns by Gastelum
1 takedown Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
3 takedowns Apr 13, 2013 vs Hall

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Johnson 8.3
fighter Gastelum 7.6
Great knockouts by Johnson
Round 2 Dec 28, 2013 vs Tibau
Round 2 Oct 05, 2012 vs Castillo
Round 1 Oct 03, 2009 vs Derrow

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Johnson 6.6
fighter Gastelum 7.5
Great submissions by Gastelum
Round 1 Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
Round 1 Jul 07, 2012 vs Smallwood
Round 2 Dec 11, 2010 vs Sanchez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Johnson 8.0
fighter Gastelum 7.9
Fast finishes by Johnson
392 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Tibau
366 seconds Oct 05, 2012 vs Castillo
196 seconds Apr 10, 2009 vs French
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Johnson
legend Gastelum
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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