UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gastelum vs Belfort

1,949

CageRank

WINNER
Belfort

prediction

BY KO ROUND 1

prediction
83% chance Belfort
WILL WIN

2,220

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Vitor Belfort
Much heavier hands 10.0 vs 7.6 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 10.0 vs 7.9 More than 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much harder to hit 9.8 vs 8.5 More than 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger jaw 9.4 vs 8.4 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.2 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 188 cm vs 182 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Much stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 7.5 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly younger 25 years vs 39 years More than 35% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly better submission offense 7.5 vs 6.9 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Belfort on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Vitor
Belfort
In 3:43, how much damage will he do? Belfort Gastelum
Significant Strikes23
Belfort's excellent striking offense will dominate Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 33 Significant Strikes in 3:43
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Belfort's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 3:43
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Belfort has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Belfort is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Belfort is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Belfort’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
In 3:43, how much damage will he do? Gastelum Belfort
Significant Strikes7
Gastelum's average striking offense won't be a factor against Belfort's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 33 Significant Strikes in 3:43
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gastelum's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Belfort's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 3:43
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Belfort 9.2
fighter Gastelum 8.5
Great striking by Belfort
12 strikes Nov 09, 2013 vs Henderson
18 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Bisping
6 strikes Jan 24, 2009 vs Lindland

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Belfort 7.6
fighter Gastelum 8.9
Great takedowns by Gastelum
1 takedown Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
3 takedowns Apr 13, 2013 vs Hall

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Belfort 10.0
fighter Gastelum 7.6
Great knockouts by Belfort
Round 1 Nov 09, 2013 vs Henderson
Round 2 Jan 19, 2013 vs Bisping
Round 1 Sep 19, 2009 vs Franklin

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Belfort 6.9
fighter Gastelum 7.5
Great submissions by Gastelum
Round 1 Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
Round 1 Jul 07, 2012 vs Smallwood
Round 2 Dec 11, 2010 vs Sanchez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Belfort 10.0
fighter Gastelum 7.9
Fast finishes by Belfort
77 seconds Nov 09, 2013 vs Henderson
387 seconds Jan 19, 2013 vs Bisping
182 seconds Sep 19, 2009 vs Franklin
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Belfort
legend Gastelum
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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