UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gastelum vs Souza

1,949

CageRank

WINNER
Souza

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
85% chance Souza
WILL WIN

2,245

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ronaldo Souza
Much harder to hit 9.5 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission offense 9.0 vs 7.5 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.3 vs 7.9 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense 9.4 vs 8.3 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
A lot taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.5 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.2 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Longer reach 187 cm vs 182 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Significantly younger 26 years vs 38 years More than 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier hands 7.6 vs 7.3 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Heavier 184 lbs vs 183 lbs Almost the same
Souza on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ronaldo
Souza
In 6:09, how much damage will he do? Souza Gastelum
Significant Strikes33
Souza's good striking offense may be a factor against Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 55 Significant Strikes in 6:09
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Souza's excellent takedown offense will dominate Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 6:09
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Souza is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Souza has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Souza is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Souza’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
In 6:09, how much damage will he do? Gastelum Souza
Significant Strikes16
Gastelum's average striking offense won't be a factor against Souza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 55 Significant Strikes in 6:09
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gastelum's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Souza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 6:09
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Souza 8.7
fighter Gastelum 8.5
Great striking by Souza
28 strikes Sep 04, 2013 vs Okami
12 strikes Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
47 strikes Aug 21, 2010 vs Kennedy

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Souza 9.2
fighter Gastelum 8.9
Great takedowns by Souza
2 takedowns Jan 12, 2013 vs Herman
4 takedowns Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
3 takedowns Jun 15, 2008 vs Miller

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Souza 7.3
fighter Gastelum 7.6
Great knockouts by Gastelum
Round 1 Jul 20, 2012 vs Ashford
Round 2 Oct 22, 2011 vs Gentile
Round 3 Jul 16, 2011 vs Moguel

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Souza 9.0
fighter Gastelum 7.5
Great submissions by Souza
Round 1 May 18, 2013 vs Camozzi
Round 3 Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
Round 1 Dec 19, 2009 vs Lindland

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Souza 9.4
fighter Gastelum 7.9
Fast finishes by Souza
167 seconds Sep 04, 2013 vs Okami
217 seconds May 18, 2013 vs Camozzi
720 seconds Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Souza
legend Gastelum
Read More
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Souza vs Weidman
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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