UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gastelum vs Whittaker

1,949

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Gastelum

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
67% chance Gastelum
WILL WIN

1,824

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 8.0 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Fast finishes 7.9 vs 7.6 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission offense 7.5 vs 7.3 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Advantages for Robert Whittaker
Taller 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 187 cm vs 182 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better takedown defense 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Slightly better submission defense 8.4 vs 8.2 Almost the same
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Whittaker’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Gastelum Whittaker
Significant Strikes83
Gastelum's average striking offense may be a factor against Whittaker's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Gastelum's good takedown offense may be a factor against Whittaker's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Whittaker on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Robert
Whittaker
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Whittaker Gastelum
Significant Strikes78
Whittaker's good striking offense may be a factor against Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Whittaker's average takedown offense is matched by Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Whittaker is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Whittaker is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Whittaker is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Gastelum 8.5
fighter Whittaker 8.7
Great striking by Whittaker
53 strikes May 25, 2013 vs Smith
83 strikes Dec 15, 2012 vs Scott

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Gastelum 8.9
fighter Whittaker 8.0
Great takedowns by Gastelum
1 takedown Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
3 takedowns Apr 13, 2013 vs Hall

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Gastelum 7.6
fighter Whittaker 7.8
Great knockouts by Whittaker
Round 3 May 25, 2013 vs Smith
Round 1 Mar 23, 2012 vs Spooner
Round 2 Dec 09, 2011 vs Bone

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Gastelum 7.5
fighter Whittaker 7.3
Great submissions by Gastelum
Round 1 Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
Round 1 Jul 07, 2012 vs Smallwood
Round 2 Dec 11, 2010 vs Sanchez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Gastelum 7.9
fighter Whittaker 7.6
Fast finishes by Gastelum
146 seconds Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
746 seconds Jul 16, 2011 vs Moguel
398 seconds Dec 11, 2010 vs Sanchez
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Gastelum
legend Whittaker
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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