UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gastelum vs Woodley

1,949

CageRank

WINNER
Woodley

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
69% chance Woodley
WILL WIN

2,090

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Tyron Woodley
Much better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.3 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly fast finishes 8.9 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better striker 8.9 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.6 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Longer reach 188 cm vs 182 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.2 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission offense 7.7 vs 7.5 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Significantly younger 25 years vs 35 years Around 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Woodley on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tyron
Woodley
In 8:08, how much damage will he do? Woodley Gastelum
Significant Strikes46
Woodley's good striking offense may be a factor against Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 73 Significant Strikes in 8:08
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Woodley's average takedown offense is matched by Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 8:08
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Woodley has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Woodley has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Woodley is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Woodley’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
In 8:08, how much damage will he do? Gastelum Woodley
Significant Strikes27
Gastelum's average striking offense won't be a factor against Woodley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 73 Significant Strikes in 8:08
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gastelum's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Woodley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 8:08
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Woodley 8.9
fighter Gastelum 8.5
Great striking by Woodley
22 strikes Nov 16, 2013 vs Koscheck
15 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Hieron
20 strikes Jul 30, 2011 vs Daley

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Woodley 8.4
fighter Gastelum 8.9
Great takedowns by Gastelum
1 takedown Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
3 takedowns Apr 13, 2013 vs Hall

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Woodley 8.5
fighter Gastelum 7.6
Great knockouts by Woodley
Round 1 Nov 16, 2013 vs Koscheck
Round 1 Feb 02, 2013 vs Hieron
Round 1 Oct 09, 2010 vs Galvao

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Woodley 7.7
fighter Gastelum 7.5
Great submissions by Woodley
Round 1 Nov 20, 2009 vs Bears
Round 2 Sep 25, 2009 vs Light
Round 1 Jun 06, 2009 vs Woods

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Woodley 8.9
fighter Gastelum 7.9
Fast finishes by Woodley
278 seconds Nov 16, 2013 vs Koscheck
36 seconds Feb 02, 2013 vs Hieron
172 seconds Nov 20, 2009 vs Bears
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
January 31, 2015UFC 183
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Woodley
legend Gastelum
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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