UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gastelum vs Moguel

1,949

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Gastelum

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
94% chance Gastelum
WILL WIN

1,460

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Fast finishes 7.9 vs 7.0 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 7.5 vs 6.7 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better submission defense 8.2 vs 7.2 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 8.5 vs 7.4 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly stronger jaw 8.4 vs 7.5 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly heavier hands 7.6 vs 7.1 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Advantages for Yair Moguel
Taller 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Moguel’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Moguel on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Yair
Moguel
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Moguel is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Moguel is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Moguel is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Gastelum 7.6
fighter Moguel 7.1
Great knockouts by Gastelum
Round 1 Jul 20, 2012 vs Ashford
Round 2 Oct 22, 2011 vs Gentile
Round 2 Dec 11, 2010 vs Sanchez

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Gastelum 7.5
fighter Moguel 6.8
Great submissions by Gastelum
Round 1 Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
Round 1 Jul 07, 2012 vs Smallwood
Round 3 Jul 16, 2011 vs Moguel

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Gastelum 7.9
fighter Moguel 7.0
Fast finishes by Gastelum
146 seconds Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
746 seconds Jul 16, 2011 vs Moguel
398 seconds Dec 11, 2010 vs Sanchez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 16, 2011LAW 1
team
VS
team
R3 SUBX
XR2 KO
1,5501,587
1,6051,532
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Gastelum
legend Moguel
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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